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作成日: 2024/11/27 11:37

更新日: 2025/12/08 08:27

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What does the US Himars deployment to southern Japan mean for China?
Amber Wang

The US will deploy a marine regiment equipped with a Himars system along the Ryukus, also known as the Nansei Islands. Photo: AFP
The rocket launcher system will be dispatched with a US Marine regiment along part of the strategic 'first island chain'
A US plan to step up its military presence in a chain of southern Japanese islands is meant to block Chinese military access to the eastern waters near Taiwan in a conflict, according to Chinese analysts.

The United States plans to deploy the US Marine Littoral Regiment equipped with a Himars rocket launcher system along the Nansei Islands close to Taiwan, Japanese news agency Kyodo reported on Monday.

The deployment in the archipelago also known as the Ryukus will be part of a US-Japan operation plan to address a Taiwan contingency, sources told Kyodo.

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The contingency plan would also include installation of US long-range missile units in the Philippines, the report said.

The Nanseis extend from the southernmost part of the Japanese mainland towards Taiwan and host a major US military base in Okinawa.

They are part of the "first island chain" - a series of islands serving as a defensive line against China, stretching from Japan, through Taiwan, and down to the Philippines.

Song Zhongping, a Chinese military analyst and former PLA instructor, said the deployments were meant to boost US deterrence and "further prevent the People's Liberation Army from breaking through the first island chain".

Fu Qianshao, also a Chinese military analyst, said the US efforts were meant to threaten Chinese naval fleets entering the Pacific and Taiwan's eastern waters through the Miyako Strait, a waterway through the Nanseis.

But Fu played down the importance of the Himars system, saying that although it had been used in Ukraine against Russian targets such as command posts, it would not be able to hit moving PLA vessels and targets deep in mainland territory.

"The mobility of Himars is its strength, but if deployed on these islands, it would quickly be targeted by our drones," he added.

The Miyako Strait cuts through the Nansei chain and is one of two key entry points for the Chinese military to the Pacific. PLA Navy fleets often use the strait for training, including aircraft carriers sailing to the east of Taiwan for drills.

Beijing views Taiwan as part of China to be reunited, by force if necessary. Most countries, including the US and Japan, do not recognise the self-ruled island as independent. But Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the island by force and is committed to supplying arms to Taiwan.

Japan's growing engagement with Taiwan is one of the main sources of friction between Beijing and Tokyo.

"The US is enhancing its military presence in the Nansei Islands to deter China, and is preparing for the possibility of intervening in the event of a conflict across the Taiwan Strait," another Chinese analyst said, declining to be named.

The analyst said the deployment could open the door for Japan to be deeply involved in a military conflict.

According to the Kyodo report, the US Army will deploy the Multi-Domain Task Force's long-range fire units in the Philippines.

Those units will be in addition to the Typhon medium-range missile system that the US has stationed in northern Luzon since April - much to China's opposition.

Fu warned that these units in the Philippines would become PLA targets if Manila became involved in a conflict over the Taiwan Strait.

The plan is part of broader US military engagement with its allies in the Asia-Pacific before Donald Trump returns to the White House in January. In his first term, Trump showed little appetite for a strong security alliance at US expense.

Washington is still expected to exert pressure on Beijing over the South China Sea and Taiwan, but Lu Li-Shih, a former Taiwanese navy lieutenant commander, said he did not think Trump wanted "to get too involved in the regional affairs of other countries, especially militarily".

"The possibility of engaging in such overseas deployments and participating in wars, is unlikely," Lu said.

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