1. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) increased its global growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2%, up from 3.0% in July, but down slightly from last year's 3.3%.
2. The IMF warns that US tariffs and resulting trade tensions could pose significant risks to overall economic stability. It notes adverse effects of these tariffs are starting to show in the US economy, with inflation and unemployment rising.
3. Key economies such as the US (2% growth), China (4.8%), and Japan (1.1%) have all experienced changes in growth rates. The IMF attributes the slower US growth to policy uncertainty and job market slowdown, while China's growth decrease is offset by domestic consumption despite US tariffs. Japan's growth increase is due to stronger consumer spending but faces challenges in export sectors affected by US tariffs. Additionally, the IMF highlights potential downside risks from AI and tech-driven investment, which could spur inflation, necessitating tighter central bank policy, and causing market repricing. It also notes the rising pressure on central banks to ease monetary policy at the expense of price stability.