An estimate says Japan's population will shrink in all 47 prefectures but Tokyo by 2050, with a faster pace of decline in the countryside than in urban regions.
The National Institute of Population and Social Security Research released its projection based on the 2020 census. The estimate is compiled every five years.
The institute says the total population will fall to over 104 million by 2050.
Akita is expected to post the sharpest decline, with a 42 percent drop from its 2020 level, followed by Aomori, falling by 39 percent and Iwate and Kochi by 35 percent.
Eleven prefectures are projected to see their number of residents shrink by 30 percent or more.
The institute says populations are likely to decline in 96 percent of the municipalities nationwide.
Not only will Japan's population shrink, it will also become older.
By 2050, half of Akita's residents will be 65 or older. In Aomori, 48 percent will fall into that group and 46 percent in Iwate. The three prefectures are all in the northeastern Tohoku region.
The institute says the pace of population decline has slowed down mainly in metropolises compared to five years ago, but that in provinces, even the elderly population is expected to drop, causing differences in the paces of declines.
A senior researcher at the Japan Research Institute, Fujinami Takumi, says Tokyo and other metropolitan areas are projected to maintain their populations while the number of residents in the countryside will plunge.
He says regions where the population is shrinking fast should review their infrastructure and public transport systems so that they match the size of the community.
He also warns that maintaining the quality of life for people in the countryside will be a challenge.
Fujinami says businesses play a vital role in curbing the outflow of young people from rural areas. He urges local companies to make new investments to continue or further develop their businesses and create jobs.
He says that as many women are moving to Tokyo, some regions may find the number of children falling faster than expected.
He calls on the public and private sectors to come up with measures to provide employment to women.
The National Institute of Population and Social Security Research released its projection based on the 2020 census. The estimate is compiled every five years.
The institute says the total population will fall to over 104 million by 2050.
Akita is expected to post the sharpest decline, with a 42 percent drop from its 2020 level, followed by Aomori, falling by 39 percent and Iwate and Kochi by 35 percent.
Eleven prefectures are projected to see their number of residents shrink by 30 percent or more.
The institute says populations are likely to decline in 96 percent of the municipalities nationwide.
Not only will Japan's population shrink, it will also become older.
By 2050, half of Akita's residents will be 65 or older. In Aomori, 48 percent will fall into that group and 46 percent in Iwate. The three prefectures are all in the northeastern Tohoku region.
The institute says the pace of population decline has slowed down mainly in metropolises compared to five years ago, but that in provinces, even the elderly population is expected to drop, causing differences in the paces of declines.
A senior researcher at the Japan Research Institute, Fujinami Takumi, says Tokyo and other metropolitan areas are projected to maintain their populations while the number of residents in the countryside will plunge.
He says regions where the population is shrinking fast should review their infrastructure and public transport systems so that they match the size of the community.
He also warns that maintaining the quality of life for people in the countryside will be a challenge.
Fujinami says businesses play a vital role in curbing the outflow of young people from rural areas. He urges local companies to make new investments to continue or further develop their businesses and create jobs.
He says that as many women are moving to Tokyo, some regions may find the number of children falling faster than expected.
He calls on the public and private sectors to come up with measures to provide employment to women.
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Summary
Japan's population projected to shrink in all prefectures except Tokyo by 2050, with significant decline in rural areas. Total population expected to fall to over 104 million. Akita, Aomori, Iwate, and Kochi may see up to a 42% drop. 11 prefectures could see 30% or more decline. Populations likely
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ID: 2145224e-5f07-4dfc-93a9-e5fa9db0e58f
Category ID: nhk
URL: https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20231222_25/
Date: Dec. 22, 2023
Created: 2023/12/24 06:30
Updated: 2025/12/08 19:51
Last Read: 2023/12/24 18:58