A military analyst based in Poland says the gap in capabilities between the armed forces of Ukraine and Russia will this year reach its biggest since Moscow began its invasion.

Konrad Muzyka spoke to NHK as Saturday marks exactly two years since the start of Russia's assault on Ukraine.

He said Russian forces initially suffered heavy losses, but the mobilization of reservists in September 2022 has "finally started delivering results."

Muzyka said the Russians may take some time for planning, but once they make decisions, they can mass produce drones and other military equipment according to plan. He added Russian forces have now regained the initiative on the battlefields.

The analyst described this year as "critical" for Ukraine because "the mismatch between the Russians and Ukrainians will probably be the biggest since the war started."

He stressed that Ukrainian forces need more personnel, ammunition and training.

As for support from Western nations, Muzyka said the quality of Western equipment is good, but the problem lies in the quantity. He said there are not enough weapons to meet Ukraine's needs.

Muzyka ruled out the possibility that Ukraine will launch another counteroffensive this year.

He suggested the Ukrainian military may conduct "active defense operations" with some limited localized counterattacks. He also indicated that Ukraine will carry out long range drone attacks in Russia and Crimea "from a PR point of view."

Muzyka said without large-scale mobilization and support for armored capability, the Ukrainians will have no chance to stage extensive counteroffensives for the next two years or more.