A group of researchers says a simulation by artificial intelligence suggests that the daily tally of coronavirus cases in Tokyo will double from the current level to around 18,000 late this month.

The team led by Professor Hirata Akimasa of the Nagoya Institute of Technology used data such as changes in past infection counts, the effect of vaccines and the volume of foot traffic.

They estimated that the Omicron subvariant BA.5, which is becoming dominant, is 30 percent more transmissible than previous versions.

The simulation shows that the daily number of cases in Tokyo will peak at around 18,000 on July 25.

The researchers say that without factors which could significantly reduce case counts, such as a big drop in foot traffic, the number of infections will remain high. The AI predicted that cases will be around 15,000 even a month later.

The simulation shows that 26 people, mainly those aged 65 or older, will die each day around mid-August in the capital.

Professor Hirata says the maximum number of cases might reach roughly the same level as the peak of the sixth wave of infections early this year.

He says that people can protect the elderly from severe symptoms or death by getting their fourth vaccine dose.