US space agency NASA says a detailed analysis shows that the likelihood of an asteroid hitting Earth in 2032 has dropped to 0.28 percent.
The asteroid, called "2024 YR4," was discovered in December. It is estimated to be about 40 to 90 meters in size and is moving in an orbit that will bring it closest to Earth on December 22, 2032.
NASA updated the impact probability of the asteroid on Thursday based on new data. It earlier estimated a 3.1 percent probability of a 2032 collision, the highest figure ever for an object of this size or larger.
NASA said the asteroid is currently classified as level 1 on the Torino Scale, which categorizes potential Earth impact events from zero to 10. This level indicates that, according to current calculations, a collision is extremely unlikely and does not warrant public attention or concern. The description for this level also says "new telescopic observations very likely will lead to re-assignment to Level 0," the lowest on the scale.
NASA said it will continue observations in cooperation with research teams abroad.
The asteroid, called "2024 YR4," was discovered in December. It is estimated to be about 40 to 90 meters in size and is moving in an orbit that will bring it closest to Earth on December 22, 2032.
NASA updated the impact probability of the asteroid on Thursday based on new data. It earlier estimated a 3.1 percent probability of a 2032 collision, the highest figure ever for an object of this size or larger.
NASA said the asteroid is currently classified as level 1 on the Torino Scale, which categorizes potential Earth impact events from zero to 10. This level indicates that, according to current calculations, a collision is extremely unlikely and does not warrant public attention or concern. The description for this level also says "new telescopic observations very likely will lead to re-assignment to Level 0," the lowest on the scale.
NASA said it will continue observations in cooperation with research teams abroad.
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Summary
Asteroid "2024 YR4", discovered in December, has a reduced impact probability on Earth in 2032 from an earlier estimated 3.1% to 0.28%. The asteroid is approximately 40-90 meters in size and currently classified as level 1 on the Torino Scale, indicating an extremely unlikely collision. NASA will
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ID: e4a6a7e7-ae78-4e2a-ab04-18ce794efdb9
Category ID: nhk
URL: https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20250221_14/
Date: Feb. 21, 2025
Created: 2025/02/22 07:00
Updated: 2025/12/08 06:02
Last Read: 2025/02/22 12:48